Preseason Rankings
The Citadel
Southern
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#306
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace82.6#8
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-8.2#351
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 5.2% 7.7% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 8.7% 11.2% 5.0%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 40.5% 35.0% 49.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 60.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 72 - 14
Quad 46 - 67 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 301   UNC Asheville W 78-75 60%    
  Nov 12, 2019 62   @ Georgia L 74-94 3%    
  Nov 16, 2019 302   Campbell W 81-78 60%    
  Nov 19, 2019 294   @ Southeast Missouri St. L 82-86 36%    
  Nov 20, 2019 42   @ Illinois L 77-99 2%    
  Nov 23, 2019 328   @ Marist L 77-78 46%    
  Dec 04, 2019 71   East Tennessee St. L 76-89 14%    
  Dec 19, 2019 260   @ Longwood L 80-86 30%    
  Dec 22, 2019 22   @ North Carolina St. L 78-102 2%    
  Jan 01, 2020 142   @ Samford L 81-93 15%    
  Jan 04, 2020 215   Western Carolina L 86-88 42%    
  Jan 11, 2020 107   @ Wofford L 74-89 10%    
  Jan 15, 2020 96   UNC Greensboro L 75-85 21%    
  Jan 18, 2020 300   @ VMI L 87-90 39%    
  Jan 22, 2020 235   @ Chattanooga L 78-85 27%    
  Jan 25, 2020 102   Furman L 75-85 21%    
  Jan 29, 2020 107   Wofford L 77-86 22%    
  Feb 01, 2020 204   @ Mercer L 77-86 23%    
  Feb 05, 2020 96   @ UNC Greensboro L 72-88 9%    
  Feb 08, 2020 300   VMI W 90-87 59%    
  Feb 12, 2020 71   @ East Tennessee St. L 73-92 7%    
  Feb 15, 2020 142   Samford L 84-90 30%    
  Feb 19, 2020 235   Chattanooga L 81-82 45%    
  Feb 22, 2020 215   @ Western Carolina L 83-91 24%    
  Feb 26, 2020 204   Mercer L 80-83 41%    
  Feb 29, 2020 102   @ Furman L 72-88 10%    
Projected Record 7 - 19 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.6 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 6.6 4.8 1.2 0.1 17.4 8th
9th 0.3 2.9 7.6 8.2 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 24.3 9th
10th 3.4 7.9 9.4 6.3 2.4 0.5 0.0 29.8 10th
Total 3.4 8.2 12.3 14.7 14.5 13.1 11.0 8.2 5.9 3.9 2.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 97.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 94.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
14-4 48.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 14.0% 14.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.1% 13.7% 13.7% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 7.9% 7.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 10.6% 10.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.3% 4.6% 4.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2
9-9 3.9% 1.1% 1.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
8-10 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
7-11 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1
6-12 11.0% 0.1% 0.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 11.0
5-13 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15 14.7% 14.7
2-16 12.3% 12.3
1-17 8.2% 8.2
0-18 3.4% 3.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%